Index futures closed above $ 1,800 per ounce on Tuesday, June 30, 2020, which also means closing in the first half of this year. Over the past six months gold has become the most active futures contract and has risen more than 16% from its opening position in early 2020.

The COVID-19 outbreak has weakened various business sectors and caused health costs to increase in many countries. The impact of this is the threat of a haunting economic crisis ranging from the United States to countries in Asia. Economic volatility is expected to last until the end of the year. Meanwhile, low interest rate policies and monetary-fiscal stimulus are still expected as vitamins to restore economic conditions.

The gold price trend in July still has the potential to go up amid global investor confidence in this safe haven investment. Investors do not yet dare to move their investment portfolios to riskier instruments.

The price range of gold is expected to be at the level of $ 1,730 per ounce - $ 1,800 per ounce. Strengthening of the dollar against the yen will still affect the decline in gold prices, however the decline will not be drastic because of the threat of the second wave of COVID-19 and the increasing tension of the United States with China because of this pandemic and economic recession that sparked fears various countries will be a factor triggering stability the price of gold in the market.

In July, aside from general fundamental aspects, investors should look at several events for other fundamental considerations, namely changes in US monetary policy and Chinese steps to respond to accusations of US inflammation.

Author: Andri Darmawan (R&D)

Note: This paper is only an analysis and not as a definite reference. Keep in mind the development of fundamental and technical aspects of transactions and investment decisions.