While there is still substantial bullish sentiment in the gold market, analysts are recommending investors taking a more cautious stance this week as prices are caught in the middle of a near-term trading range.
According to many analysts, gold's short-term technical is stuck in neutral territory; prices can just as easily fall to $1,300 an ounce, as they could rise back to test resistance at $1,360 an ounce. April gold futures settled at $ 1,330.30 an ounce last Friday, down almost 2% from the previous week. The selloff comes after the yellow metal rallied more than 3% in the previous week, its best percentage gain in almost two years.
It's not just gold that is suffering; silver prices were also dragged lower, last trading at $16.55 an ounce, down almost 1% since last week. The market continues to struggle as prices are unable to break above key resistance at $17 an ounce.
Analysts said that gold’s correction after the failed breakout above $1,360 is not a significant surprise. But the question to answer now: does the market have further to correct before it pushes higher?
“I maintain my positive outlook for gold. If you think the global economic growth looks shaky, then you want to own some gold,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “But I think you need to play gold cautiously and wait for the breakout."
In the near-term, he said that investors need to brace for gold prices to drop to $1,300 an ounce as U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher.
Greg Harmon, president of Dragonfly Capital, described the gold market as floundering for direction in an environment of zero momentum.
“If I were asked how to trade this market I would say: ‘Don't and look for something else to trade,’” he said.
Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index, said that while gold's technical outlook is unclear, he said that he thinks the risks are skewed to the downside as he expects the U.S. dollar to find some momentum in the near-term. He added that the U.S. dollar's recent bounce off a three-year low could represent long-term support.
“I am bullish on the U.S. dollar, so I guess I'm bearish on gold,” the analyst said. “The U.S. dollar looks oversold and fundamentals don't support these lower prices.”
Source: Kitco News