Wall Street and Main Street look for gold to keep building on its recent gains, according to the weekly Kitco News gold survey.
The metal hit a fresh six-year high in screen trading after renewed dovishness from Federal Reserve officials last Thursday.
“Gold has not only continued its upward move, it has clearly broken out to the upside,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. “A slew of dovish comments by Fed officials, along with rising geopolitical tensions with Iran, will keep gold on its upward trek.”
Twelve market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of eight voters, or 67%, called for gold to be higher. There were three votes, or 25%, for lower, while one respondent, or 8%, looks for the metal to be sideways.
Meanwhile, 643 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 477 voters, or 74%, called for gold to rise. Another 96, or 15%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 70 voters, or 11%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Main Street was bullish while the largest bloc of Wall Street voters was either neutral or called for sideways prices. Just before 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, Comex August gold futures were trading $16.80 higher for the week so far at $1,429 an ounce.
Wall Street has a 15-12 winning record for the year, meaning respondents have been right 56% of the time. Main Street is 14-13 for 52%.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for gold to rise after the metal got an extra boost last Thursday when the market initially construed remarks from New York Fed President John Williams as a possible hint at a 50-basis-point rate cut.
“Worldwide, you’re seeing pressure on rates,” Nedoss said. “It will be interesting to see what happens with the [U.S.] dollar, but that should be supportive for the metals.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, looks for gold to be higher due to a bullish charts posture.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, figures “any kind of pullback will get bought.” Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS, said simply: “Looks like up, up and away!¨
Meanwhile, Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, figures that barring a major geopolitical flare-up, the market could be due a profit-taking pullback with so much Fed dovishness already factored into prices.
“That means we’ll see a topping in prices,” he said.
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, looks for the market to be roughly unchanged over the this week.
“The gold market has high expectations for the Fed’s next meeting at the end of the month and is pretty much priced for perfection,” Day said. “So it will likely stay unchanged or even modestly weaker going into the meeting and could well see a pullback if the Fed fails to meet expectations on either the size of the rate cut of perhaps with cautious accompanying commentary. It is unlikely to do anything more than the market is expecting.
“Beyond that, however, we are very bullish, with gold supported by ongoing easy money and uneasy stock valuations.”
Source: Kitco News