Wall Street and Main Street look for gold to maintain its newfound upward momentum in this week, based on the weekly Kitco News gold survey.
After two weeks before winds down, gold is getting a lift as equities slide more than 1% across the board. The most recent downdraft in the equity market was triggered by tweets from President Donald Trump, threatening Mexico with tariffs due to the immigration issue.
Fifteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of 11 voters, or 73%, called for gold to rise. Nobody cast a vote for lower, while four voters, or 27%, predicted a sideways market or were neutral.
Meanwhile, 448 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 242 voters, or 54%, called for gold to rise. Another 123, or 27%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 83 voters, or 19%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Main Street and Wall Street were both bullish. As of 11:21 a.m. EDT last week, they were right, with Comex August gold futures were trading up 1.3% for the week so far at $1,305.60 an ounce.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, sees gold benefitting further from some of the same factors boosting the metal.
"New tariff threats and tweets has risk aversion coming back and is going to support gold this week," Flynn said.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist, at SIA Wealth Management, also said he is bullish on gold due to geopolitical uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Mexico with a 5% tariffs on imported goods.
"A few weeks ago, we thought the new free-trade agreement was settled and then the president blows it up with one tweet," Cieszynski said. "The latest tariff news shows that nothing with this government is settled, and that underscores the uncertainty in financial markets. The gold market will do well in this uncertain environment."
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, figures gold may get a bid from political developments.
"Although the dollar remains high as U.S. growth and U.S. interest rates are higher than most other major economies, there is a gathering storm in Washington as more Democrats, in the House and among those running for president, voice support for impeachment," Day said.
Peter Hug, trading director with Kitco Metals, is also upbeat on the precious metal.
"Short-term movements are vagaries in the market," Hug said. "A break above the $1,302 level should see further upside in the immediate term. The escalation of the U.S. tariff war, now to include Mexico, we see as a direct tax on American consumers, which should begin to slow demand and decelerate growth in the U.S.
"The U.S. equity market is extremely vulnerable and the Fed may lower rates as early as June, which should begin to negatively affect the dollar. As such, we maintain a constructive outlook on the gold price and suspect the low for 2019 may be in."
Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, said the environment is constructive for gold as the U.S. dollar index struggles around 98 and 10-year Treasury notes are near a two-year low. However, he added that investors should still remain cautious and not chase the market at current levels.
Darin Newsom, an independent technical analyst, also sees gold rising.
"The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend in August gold continues to strengthen, with initial resistance at its four-week high of $1,310.10," he said. "Beyond that, the target is near $1,317.40, a price that marks the 50% retracement of the previous secondary downtrend from $1,361.50 through the low of $1.273.10."
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, said "bulls now have technical momentum."
Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, said he is neutral, waiting for confirmation of a seasonal low.
Source: Kitco News