The market remains emphatically bullish on gold. But, looking past the headlines, the yellow metal is beginning to look overbought, according to some analysts.
The gold market is on track to see its biggest weekly gain in more than three years as prices trade near a fresh six-year high. Although economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate the marketplace, some analysts think the market could be close to a near-term top and is due for a consolidation.
However, sentiment remains clearly bullish as analysts are reluctant to outright short gold.
“You can’t sell this market,” said Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis Inc. “I don’t want to buy at this level because the market is sharply overbought, but I also won’t be the first person to sell.”
Last week, 16 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of 12 voters, or 75%, called for gold to be higher this week. Bearish and neutral votes were tied with each getting two votes or 13%.
Meanwhile, 910 respondents took part in Kitco’s online Main Street poll. Participation in this week’s survey is at its highest level in more than a year. A total of 599 voters, or 65%, called for gold to rise further. Another 187 participants, or 21%, predicted for gold to fall. The remaining 124 voters, or 14%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Main Street and Wall Street were both significantly bullish on prices for the week now winding down. As of 12:05 pm last Friday, Comex August gold futures were trading $1,458.30 an ounce, up 2.7% for the week.
Gold prices surged higher after the China government let the yuan rise above 7 against the U.S. dollar for the first time in more than a decade, sparking fears that the U.S. –China trade war has evolved into a currency war.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said that although a correction is overdue in the gold market, investor sentiment in the overall financial market has changed.
“And if you want to buy a little gold as a hedge on the rest of your portfolio, you tend to be less price sensitive. But all those small positions add up in a market as relatively small as the gold market. So gold could well drive further upwards,” he said.
Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, said that he is bullish on gold as seasonal factors continue to support prices but he also warned that investors should be prepared for a correction.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA, said that it would be healthy to see a pullback in gold, but added that momentum continues to support higher prices in the near-term. He reiterated his call that because of the market’s momentum, any correction could be seen as a buying opportunity.
Along with Newsom, Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, was the second neutral vote in the latest survey. He said that although gold has room to move higher in the near-term, momentum indicators have slowed.
“Gold has had a huge move in the last few months and it looks like it’s running into some resistance and looks like it wants to level off,” he said. “I don’t think the rally is over but I think gold right now wants to pause and digest its recent gains.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was one of the two bearish votes this week. He explained that gold’s momentum is starting to wane and it could prompt some traders to take some profits in gold.
However, he added that he would be reluctant to short the market in the current environment.
“The market is hyper-sensitive and bullish sentiment could strengthen really quickly,” he said. “I think traders should watch equity markets for near-term direction in gold.”
Lusk said he would expect “back-and-fill” trading to push gold to initial support at $1,495 to $1,480. However, he added that price could fall as low as $1,430 before gold bulls start to get a little nervous.
Source: Kitco News