The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is alternating gains with losses in the second half of the week around the 97.30 region.
US Dollar Index looks to data, ECB
After a drop to fresh 3-month lows in the 96.80/75 band on Wednesday, the index managed to regain composure and reclaim the 97.00 mark once again, ending the day with decent gains.
Poor prints from the ADP report (lowest since March 2010) added to the already mounting speculations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although subsequent better-than-expected results from the ISM Non-manufacturing brought in some relief to the buck as well as a pick up in the buying interest.
Later in the NA session, the usual Initial Claims are due seconded by Trade Balance figures and Challenger Job Cuts. In addition, Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, dovish) will speak at the Boston College and New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) will discuss on International Another event worth of attention will be the ECB monetary policy meeting, where market consensus expects a dovish tone to prevail at the event.
What to look for around USD
The greenback is suffering markets’ perception of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in light of the persistent decline of US yields, increasing trade tensions, the inversion of the 3M-10Y yield curve and dovish Fedspeak. In the meantime, trade fears have moved from US-China to US-Mexico following recent Trump’s threats, all adding to the idea that a global slowdown is in the offing. However, the Fed remains patient for the time being, closely watching critical upcoming data releases.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.05% at 97.26 and a drop below 96.75 (low Jun.5) would open the door for 96.46 (200-day SMA) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 97.39 (55-day SMA) seconded by 98.28 (high May 30) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 23).