Wall Street leans slightly bearish and Main Street slightly bullish in the weekly Kitco News gold survey.
Neither the bulls nor the bears had an outright majority in either survey, however. The Wall Street bulls figure gold is due for a corrective bounce higher, while the bears look for the downward momentum to continue due to technical-chart damage and recently stronger equities.
Fifteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Six voters, or 40%, look for gold to continue its recent slide. Five voters, or 33%, called for higher prices, while the remaining four, or 27%, expect prices to be sideways or were neutral.
Meanwhile, 522 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 242 voters, or 46%, called for gold to rise. Another 206, or 39%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 74 voters, or 14%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Main was bullish while Wall Street was split on gold for the last week. As of 11:10 a.m. EDT, Comex June gold futures were trading down 1.3% for the week so far at $1,277.80 an ounce.
“I think you will see more downside just because of the fact that equities are so strong now,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. “With equities [up] there, it will be hard for gold to stage a rally.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for June gold to edge lower still toward the 200-day moving average around $1,266.90. However, he added, the market may find support there and bounce, particularly since an upside breakout occurred from around here late last year.
“I think we still come down and test the 200-day average,” Nedoss said. “There is enough momentum to the downside. The dollar [index] keeps testing that 97 level.”
Meanwhile, Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, looks for gold to bounce after becoming “oversold” during the recent downdraft.
“On a longer-term basis, the dollar needs to decline for gold to move meaningfully higher and on a sustained basis,” Day added.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, also looks for gold to stage a recovery after some bulls exited in response to recent U.S. dollar strength.
“[The] $1,270 [area] held rather well,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this week, when everyone is back on Tuesday [following Easter weekend], we see a move back up again if there are no fresh surprises in the market.”
Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, said he is bullish on gold overall, but for now is “neutral until the summer cyclical lows are posted.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, looks for a steady market this week. Technically, a move above $1,282 portends further strength, he said. But if prices remain below, they could test the 200-day moving average the around $1,267 neighborhood. Keys will be whether equities remain elevated and the next move in the U.S. dollar, he added.
Source: Kitco News